Rationality, Educated Opinion and Peace Essay Example for Free

Rationality, Educated Opinion and Peace Essay Abstract: This paper addresses the relevance of interwar thought to the building of peace through examining the ideas of three important writers of the period: Edward Hallett Carr, Norman Angell and Alfred Zimmern. The role of public opinion was under much query in the politics of the period they wrote in, and crucial to this issue are the questions as to whether the public mind is rational and capable of reason. These writers are concerned with the influence of public opinion and believe that through educating the public mind, the possibility of peace can be increased. Drawing from their ideas, this paper thus postulates that peace is a product of rationality and there is possibility of progress through education. The birth of international relations as a separate discipline was founded against the context of the interwar years, which brought about important consequences for the subsequent development of the interwar years. The tensions prior to and the subsequent devastation of the Great War forced intellectuals of the early twentieth century to seek explanations for the causes of war and to postulate measures by which another catastrophe could be prevented. The general psyche of the people exerted an influence on the direction of international studies. As David Long points out, the academic study of international affairs during this period of time possessed a normative though not necessarily utopian interest in the avoidance of war1. Such a trend is manifested in the trust deed of the Wilson Chair of International Politics (one of the first few schools of the discipline), which states that international politics is the political science in its application to international relations with special reference to the best means of promoting peace between nations.2 Woodrow Wilson, being a leading statesman at the time, presents one of the possible avenues for peace. He consciously and deliberately tied issues of foreign policy to domestic politics, giving rise to what will come to be known as the democratic peace thesis. Wilson advocates the belief that popular participation, public life and opportunity for all [will be] the guarantee of peace. Wilson believed that diplomacy and foreign policy must be taken with regard to public opinion and the public being rational would prefer peace to war.3 The crucial premise here is that public opinion matters in a democratic political system. The assumption further made is that the political leaders are sensitive to public opinion and will be susceptible to their demands. The issue of public opinion gives rise to another set of issues, and one of the foremost in this period, is the skepticism that the basic assumption of a rational public rejecting war is true. Is the public rational? Is war a rational choice? The political definition of rationality is the ability of the public to discern the options open to them, and to adopt the best option to achieve their prioritized goals. The Great War cast doubts as to whether public is necessarily aware of what their options and goals are, much less their ability to choose the best option to fit their preferred purpose. As historian A. J. P. Taylor argues that the intellectual backlash against the dehumanizing war made the interwar years an age of intellectual and artistic activity, where intellectuals from various fields of study question the power of man to reason.4 The devastation of war brings queries, particularly from the idealists, as to whether war can be a rational choice. Even if the assumption holds true, there is still the question as to whether public opinion has any weight on policy formulation. Given this particular context, this paper questions the foundations of Wilsonian politics. This paper will thus postulate on the influence of public opinion and the impact of rationality on the maintenance of peace by drawing from the ideas of three important writers of this period: Edward Hallett Carr, Norman Angell and Alfred Zimmern. This paper will first introduce the positions of all three writers. It will then examine the fundamental assumption shared by all three writers with respect to public opinion, before expounding on their arguments on the rationality of the public and why the issue matters. The paper will then look into the possibilities of peace, and how the three concur on the issue of education. Due to source constraints, this paper will draw on secondary references to the works of the three writers, where the primary sources are not available. Carr, Angell and Zimmern Peter Wilson in Thinkers of the Twenty Years Crisis introduces Carrs book as a work which not only set the tone for subsequent discussion of inter-war thought, but also substantially shaped postwar attitudes towards it.5 The premise for The Twenty Years Crisis is the critique of inter-war idealism, which Carr terms utopian6. Carr dismisses the utopians as being unable to understand political reality and sets up a dichotomy that supposes utopia: reality= free will: determinism= theory: practice= morality: power =universal: relative= intellectual: bureaucrat= Left: Right 7 The dichotomy presented by Carr undermines interwar idealism, and leads, in part, to the rejection of the practical value of these theories. This dichotomy shapes subsequent debate and is consequentially identified as the polarity of realism and idealism, which will dominate international studies for the next few decades. In order to posit queries of the dichotomy, it is first necessary to expound on the assumptions that are conventionally made of either school. Brian C. Schmidt summarises the assumptions of idealism as follows : a pervasive faith in reason and rationalism, a belief in the infallibility of public opinion, the view that war was irrational, that the best way to end conflict was through education, international law, and world government, and, finally, a belief that the essential harmony of interests existed, which translated into the international doctrine of war-does-not-pay8. Superficially, both Norman Angell and Alfred Zimmern adopt such assumptions in their writings. Significantly, both Angell and Zimmern share the same devotion to one key tenet: the possibility of progress through educating public opinion and conditioning human behaviour. Their devotion to the tenet became stronger later into their careers, especially after the Second World War. The realist school of thought as represented by Carr, refutes the idealist assumptions. In particular, the realists argue that the concept of power is central to international affairs. Carr adopts Thomas Hobbes argument on human nature and advances the argument that the state as a rational actor will choose to maximize its capacity for power in order to secure its survival. He argues that public opinion, even when informed, is not necessarily pacifist and that thought can be mould by political purposes. Through defining his position by rejecting and critiquing the idealists assumptions, Carrs realist position is thus seen as the diametric opposite of the idealists. It is then necessary to redress both the ideas of Carr and the much-maligned interwar idealists, among whom are Zimmern and Angell. The choice of juxtaposing Angell and Zimmern with Carr in this paper is conscious. Both Zimmern and Angell are among the few utopians whom Carr explicitly criticizes in The Twenty Years Crisis. Andreas Osiander points out that Zimmern is still widely regarded as what Oslon and Groom have called the consummate idealist9, and is thus identifiable with the idealist school of thought. Yet Zimmern, as Paul Rich and Peter Wilson suggest, is considerably less adverse to Carrs ideas than his idealist colleagues.10 Angell, on the other hand, is one of the fiercest adversaries to The Twenty Years Crisis, but J. D. Miller raises the argument that Angell should be regarded less as an idealist than a far sighted realist because of his acute awareness of the issues of political reality11. The interplay of their ideas then calls to question the validity of a clear dich otomy. In essence then, this paper seek to question if the positions of these writers on the assumptions raised by Schmidt are as concrete as they appear to be. In other words, this paper examines the complexities of Carr, Angell and Zimmerns ideas on the applicability of public opinion, rationality and possibilities of peace. On closer examination, this paper argues that despite the differences, the three share a fundamental similarity: the belief in progress. The dichotomy between the realists and idealists is permeable, and in their postulation of the long term, the arguments of Carr, Angell and Zimmern coincide. Public Opinion First and foremost, the underlying assumption that Carr, Angell and Zimmern adopt is that public opinion matters, even though their understanding of public opinion differs. Zimmern argues that [p]ublic opinion is the lifeblood of a civilized community but unfortunately, the majority of the peoples is guided by caprice of ignorance, passion or greed, and the other devils if unreason.12 The title of Carrs inaugural speech at the University College of Wales, Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace says much. Carr argues that public opinion can exert tremendous influence over a foreign policy issue that it feels sufficiently strongly about, using the case of the public rejection of the Hoare-Laval plan to build his case. He states that, No nation, and least of all a democracy, can wage war unless it has the support of an overwhelming majority of its people13. The implication of such a statement in light of guarding the peace is that insofar as the public is not in favour of war, a state and particularly a democratic state will not and cannot adopt war as a policy instrument. Angells Nobel Lecture, Peace and the Public Mind, adopts the same position, except that he argues public opinion, being misinformed and disastrously erroneous can lead to war. 14 Interestingly both Angell and Carr argue that public opinion is easily manipulated. Carr devotes a section to Power over opinion in The Twenty Years Crisis, suggesting that the greater proportion of public becoming conscious or involved in politics relates to the importance that the ruling elite place on propaganda as an instrument of power. The influence of propaganda rests on the premise he sets earlier in the book that the crucial contribution of realism is the idea that thought is relative to purpose. 15 For instance, nationalism, as a form of ideology, could be seen as a means by which the public can be persuaded to go to war. Similarly, Angell contends that a small militant minority is capable of appealing to the majority towards a policy that may not be in the majoritys best interests.16 Rationality Having established that public opinion has a role to play, we then move on to the crucial questions: is the public rational, and is war a rational choice? On both issues, there are significant differences between Carr and the idealists, arising from the difference in the way they interpret and infer from past and current events. Reason and rationality give rise to different outcomes for Carr and the idealists. An important observation is that Carr places more faith in reason and rationality than do the others, contrary to our earlier presupposition that it is the idealists who have a pervasive faith in reason and rationalism. A proper definition of what is meant by rational behaviour has yet to be provided as a premise for argument. To proceed, we adopt James Mills argument for the rational public opinion quoted in Carr as a guide to what rational behaviour entails: Every man possessed of reason is accustomed to weigh evidence and to be guided and determined by its preponderance. When various conclusions are, with their evidence presented with equal care and with equal skill, there is a moral certainty, though some few maybe misguided, that greatest number will judge right, and the greatest force of evidence, whatever it is, will produce the greatest impression. 17 Whereas Carr believes that the public, being self-interested, is capable of defining their goals and seeking the best possible means to achieve toward that end, he rejects Mills definition of rational behaviour. Mills definition is in turn based on the ideas espoused by Jeremy Betham who assumes that the ideal option is the greatest good to the greatest number. Carr argues that public opinion comes from the masses, who are for large part, neither enlightened nor educated and thus the greatest number need not necessarily judge right. He argues that Betham and Mills assumption that self-interest can be sacrificed for the sake of the greatest good to the collective is based on some kind of intuition of what is right and cannot be demonstrated by rational argument.18 Carr suggests, instead, that rational necessarily demands a consciousness and the ability to adjust to the balance of power existing in international affairs, which serves as a constraint on the options available. The discerning public thus does not only take into account what is right, but also what is most practical in catering to self-interest. Carr then adopts an argument that is parallel to Thomas Hobbes. Hobbes, in Leviathan, states the fundamental law of nature as: it is a precept, or general rule of reason that every man, ought to endeavour peace, as far as he has hope of obtaining it; and when he cannot obtain it, that he may seek, and use all helps, and advantages of war Carr comments, to the same effect, that although war is undesirable, it is not possible to impose an absolute judgement that war is always and unconditionally wrong. The implication of Hobbes and Carrs argument is that the public being rational favours peace. However, when the public believes that they have more to gain from war, or more to lose from not going to war, war becomes a rational and logical solution. Historically, Carrs argument seems to find sufficient basis in the outbreak of World War I. One of the reasons contributing to the war was the increase in bellicosity, arising from rationalization of cost and benefit or cooperation and non-cooperation. Prior to the Great War, the perceived cost of non-cooperation19 had decreased. The perception was influenced by beliefs that any war would be short, a consequence of a highly exaggerated faith in the efficacy of offensive military strategies and tactics20 and by the system of alliances. The perception was further coloured by nationalism. Secondly the perceived gains of non-cooperation had increased. The general belief was that expansionism and offensive foreign policy was perceived to be too high, due to the general suspicion of the intentions of the other states. Given these perceptions then prevalent, European states saw it to their advantage to go to war, and in fact to initiate the war so as to reap the greatest advantage of the gr ound. This international game theory exemplifies in part the rational process that Carr espoused. The idealists depart greatly from Carr. Angell and Zimmern accept that Mills definition is greatly desired but finds it incongruent with political reality. Reus-Smit, in his essay The Strange Death of Liberal Theory, argues that the conflict between morality and political reality is seen by Angell as a divide between reason and unreason. He argues that, If the former prevailed, there was some hope of a reconciliation between morality, defined as the well-being of all and reality, which in [Angells] favoured area was the incompatibility of warfare and such well-being.21 However, within the historical context, Angell believes that unreason prevailed. Angell believes that the public mind is often irrational, because it is too easily persuaded; it does not possess sufficient information, nor the ability to process vast amounts of information when it is available and it lacks the skill to seek evidence for the various conclusions, as Mill points out, i.e., it cannot see the likely results of actions. 22 The public mind cannot compute cost-benefit-analysis, which is central to rationalization. Angell accounts for this irrationality of the public mind, stating that it arises from the failure to apply to our international relationships knowledge which is of practically universal possession23 In Angells opinion then, it is not for the lack of intellectual capacity on the part of the public that lead to the irrational behaviour, but the inability to apply knowledge. Resting on his idea of the irrational public, Angell expounds on the war and why the publics choice to go to war is actually irrational. In his aptly named book, The Great Illusion, he puts forth a convincing argument on the futility of war on grounds of rationality and economic considerations. Angell argues that the perceived benefits of war under modern circumstances, are reduced, as victors can no longer expect to benefit as much from the spoils of war. The change is largely because goods and spoils are no longer portable (such as gold, silver, slaves, precious stones) as they had before. Goods and services are non-physical such as currency, shares, and fixed assets, and are thus not transferable wealth. As such, if states act purely in their self-interest, given the expectation not to gain from war, states would be unlikely to pursue war.24 Angell considers this line of reasoning to be simplistic and easily applicable to the conduct of international relations. Yet as the advent of World War I proves, the public is incapable of applying such rationale to political practice. Angell argues that the pervading reasons behind war, then, are irrational. Not only does war not serve to the benefit of the state concerned, better alternatives of action could be sought such as building economic relations, social interaction. Such connections can be used in persuading, as opposed to coercing, other states into behaving in the manner that is beneficial to the state concerned. Thus the argument adopted is that war is irrational, i.e. not the best-laid option, and man being irrational and susceptible to external influences, chooses to use war as a policy instrument. Andreas Osiander points out that unlike what Carr implies, Zimmern, like Angell, was very far from seeing public opinion as necessarily a force for peace.25 Like Angell, he believes that the conflicts in the international arena, giving rise to war are resultant of intellectual, and not political failure.26 However, if Carr is to be believed, Zimmern can, in fact, be seen as being more extreme than Angell. Carr states in The Twenty Years Crisis that Zimmern is inclined towards the hypothesis that If mankind in its international relations has signally failed to achieve the rational good, it must have been too stupid to understand that good. Carrs statement is not altogether justified. Although Zimmern does point out that the impediment to overcoming the obstacle towards peace is that man are beings of conservative temper and limited intelligence27, what he implies is that man is reluctant to adjust to present realities brought by modernity. As a result of the inherent resistance towar ds change, mans mental capacity does not adapt to the fact that previous ways of managing international relations are no longer applicable. Consequentially, public opinion cannot be trusted to be rational. Zimmern subscribes to John Stuart Mills argument of the tyranny of the majority. He argues that the ruling elite, that is, the politicians in positions of power tend to be capable of rationalization. However this intellectual minority in government is consumed by the irrational public: for statesmen, however wise and far sighted, are limited in their policies by the public opinion and parliaments to which they are responsible.28 Angell concurs on this issue. J. D. Miller, drawing from Angells comments, argues that Angell too feared the impact upon politicians of an unreasoning crowd mind, and doubted the capacity of politicians to resist it. Both Angell and Zimmern, then, prefer that the intellectual minority be given the ability and power to lead the rest of the populace, so as to govern rational foreign policies. In this regard, Carr again differs. Whereas Carr does agree that the intellectual minority has a role to play in leading public opinion,29 he believes that the intellectual minority is however, sadly, out of touch with reality. He argues his case by drawing on the difference between intellectuals perceptions of the League of Nations with those of the man on the street. The intellectuals, who tend to be idealists by his definition, strive to secure and maintain peace via means of treaties, covenants and legal codifications. The general public, however, is more concerned with the practice of international affairs (as opposed to the theory.) Going by Carrs understanding of rational behaviour to be taking into account what is right and also what is most practical in application, the intellectual minority is in pra ctice less rational than the public. Change and the possibility of progress As it is, there seems to be a great divide between Carr and his two contemporaries with regards to whether man is rational. However, central to their arguments is the shared belief that history is a directional process, that is, there is the idea of constant change. Carr argues that war occurs because of the conservative reluctance to allow change to the status quo and the way to peace is to provide means of peaceful change.30 Angell and Zimmern suggest that war occurs because man has yet to come to terms with change, and that the mentality and psyche of the populace has not kept in line with international developments. As Zimmern states, the statesmen and the peoples have not adjusted their minds to the new realities31. The central concern with the issue of change harkens to a broader issue on which the three writers concur: the possibility of progress. The interwar context is one of pessimism. The first decade had been one of recovery and rehabilitation from the shock of the Great War and the second decade of mounting tensions and escalation to an even more disastrous war. The context in which these writers write in, therefore, begets the question of whether man can move away from destruction of war, and by what means. The three writers agree that the current situation calls for change, as present movements and measures to maintain peace are insufficient and inadequate, and are reasonably optimistic that such change can be effected. Carr notes even in 1936 that, the cause of peace has made tremendous stride during the past fifteen years and shows his preference towards progressive history, arguing that a sense of change as a progressive factor in history, and belief in reason as our guide for the understanding of its complexities are crucial to the current world. Angell is of the same mind when he questions the unchangeability of human nature and argues that just as cannibalism and slavery can be systematically reduced in our society, so too can the warlike nature of man and states32. Zimmern, even when decrying the decline of international standards (which he defined as rules of behaviour) at a meeting at Chatham House in 1937 argues that the process of change allowing for peaceful coexistence was already taking place.33 The ultimate aim of change is the maintenance of peace, which is assumed to be the preferred good, through the avoidance of war. The question that is then posited is, by what means? Carr, Angell and Zimmern propose different measures but the one pertinent to the prior argument on public opinion and rationality is their faith in education. Due to their fundamental belief that public opinion matters, it is logical to argue that if the public mind, as Angell would call it, could be trained and conditioned to favour peaceful change, then the chances of states going to war would be minimized. Angell quotes in his The Great Illusion that Not the facts, but mens opinions about the facts is what matters, and making a parallel with the abolishment of witch hunts, he comments that just as in the matter of burning witches a change of behaviour was the outcome of a change of opinion in a same way a change in the political conduct of can only come about as a result of a change of thought34. The w ay to peace then is to shape mans perceptions about war. Given this understanding, the most basic and possibly most efficient way of bringing about this conditioned public is through education. However in his address given to Chatham House in 1931, Angell claims that the current education system does not adequately prepare the individual to make intelligent and informed inferences from the facts presented to him. He believes that the reason behind this lack in the system is that education tends to follow a tradition whereby an older generation influences and instruct the younger through a process of socialization.35 Unfortunately this tradition means that values and ideas that are taught are often unable to catch up with present realities. The educational system had also focused on provision of information, without equipping the individual with means to discern the motivations, the causation analysis, the implications et cetera behind the piece of information. According to him, We have thought too much of the facts and too little of their meaning. 36 Thus the socialization/education of an individual does not adequately provide him with the skill to make rational choices. Given his premise that war is irrational under any circumstances lest in defence and a rational public will therefore reject war, the skill deficiency means that man may choose to go to war due to their lack of understanding, unless the educational system can be changed. Beyond the suggestion that education shifts its focus from its informational purpose towards equipping successive generations with the skill to possess information, Angell does not however provide for how education can be otherwise structured. Zimmern elaborates on his ideal educational system in his book Learning and Leadership, which is not only designed to impart the skill of discerning information but also specifically equipped to teach students about international life. Particularly, he believes that practical experience through interaction with people from other nations will allow students to imbibe the habit of cooperation and harmonious living37. Zimmern believes that once people are given more exposure to the international arena, they will be able to understand foreigners and foreign influences better and become more acutely aware of the idea of universal brotherhood. This basic premise being established, man will be more able to understand the actions of others, less inclined to take preemptive action and to go to war. The assumption of such an argument is that people are less inclined to advocate war against a party that they share an understanding with. Education is thus seen as an instrument which can build commonality among peoples, as well as a means by which the public can be trained to be rational. In The Twenty Years Crisis, Carr argues for the application of reason to understanding current situations and political reality; in his later work What is History he extends the role of reason to the capacity to reform: The primary function of reason, as applied to man in society, is no longer merely to investigate, but to transform; and this heightened consciousness of the power of men to improve the management of his social, economic and political affairs by the application of rational processes seems to me one of the major aspects of the twentieth century. 38 The core assumptions here are that reason leads to progress and progress is necessarily an improvement. Remembering the key concern of the study of international relations in the interwar period, a foremost improvement of the human condition is the eradication of war. As do Angell and Zimmern, Carr believes that education was to be the tool by which such improvement can come about. However, unlike Zimmern and Angell who believe that the public has to be thought how to make rational choices in the first place, Carr believes that education can be used to shape the way the public thinks about their choices. Carr notes then that education policy must be shaped: Educators at all levels are nowadays more and more consciously concerned to make their contribution to the shaping of society in a particular mould, and to inculcate in the rising generation the attitudes, loyalties and opinions appropriate to that type of society: educational policy is an integral part of any rationally planned social policy.39 It is then assumed, that rationally, a society will be prefer not to resort to war in a conflict of interest, and a means by which this can be ensured is to design an educational system which, in the context of the interwar years, should imbue in them the moral norm that peaceful change is the preferred means of achieving policy objectives. To put it more plainly, Carrs ideal is using education to persuade man against the doctrine of power, providing a basis whereby a compromise between morality and power can be reached and peaceful change achieved. In his contention that thought is relative to purpose, Carr postulates that mass opinion can directed and in fact mass-produced via universal popular education. It is imperative to note that by popular education, Carr has included the mass media.( Carr does not, however differentiate between education and propaganda in The Twenty Years Crisis though in What is History, he associates education with rationality and the growing consciousness from below as well as from above of the role which reason can play40). The application of reason and rationality therefore means that education can be used to persuade mankind against war. Instead of making an argument that war is irrational, educators can influence the public into making a conscious choice not to use war as a policy instrument. As Carr states, I regard as of immense importance and promise the gradual extension of the area of the worlds surface within which war has been effectively been placed under the ban, such that war is actually unthinkable41. What becomes interesting is how closely Carr mirrors the utopians he derides. Peter Wilson, in his attempt to understand what Carr means by utopian, lists the various characteristics that Carr associates with the term. According to his analysis, all of these characteristics are progressive ideas; and it might be therefore be concluded that the core characteristic of interwar idealism is belief in conscious, progressive change. On this basis, Carr does not seem to be any much different, which recalls Reus-Smits observation quoted earlier in this paper that Carr is himself not a consummate realist. It is also possible to put forth an argument that Carrs argument against utopianism was never meant to be an outright and unconditional rejection of the interwar theories. Conclusion Whether or not these three writers think the public mind is rational depends largely on whether they believe war can be a rational choice, and yet regardless of their perspectives on these two issues, they believe that progress towards avoidance of war can be ensured through changing human behaviour. Education policies thus become important, as they can shape the perceptions of the public and thus affect their choices, which is in turn reflected in the chosen foreign policy. However there is a point to note based on this argument set. All three writers are writing within a democratic framework and tradition, where by definition, requires that public opinion matters. Yet, public opinion is less likely to make an impact in an authoritarian state, and even in democratic states, there is the consideration of public apathy, the leaders gambling and taking risks by not going according to public opinion, et cetera. These complications bring us back to the consideration of Wilsonian politics. Woodrow Wilson professes that his aim is to make the world safe for democracy, and that democracy will bring peace. His tendency has been to look at the building and maintenance of peace from a top down approach, where the political structure and political ideological apparatus are enforced. In other words, he looks to providing a mechanism which will allow the rational public to prevent the tendencies of the militant minority from dragging the state to war. However, from the ideas of Carr, Angell and Zimmern, such a mechanism would not function effectively against war unless the public mind can be first conditioned through a fitting educational system emphasizing co-operation and peace. 1 David Long, Conclusion: Interwar idealism, liberal internationalism and contemporary international theory. Thinkers of the Twenty Years Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. p. 303, pp. 306-307. 2 Quoted in E. H. Carrs inaugural speech in the University College of Wales. Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1931-1939). Vol. 15. No. 6. (Nov- Dec 1936), p. 846. 3 Mortimer Chambers, et al. The Western Experience Vol C: The Modern Era. pp. 892-893 4 A. J. P. Taylor, From Sarajevo to Potsdam. London: Thames Hudson: 1966 pp. 103-106 5 Peter Wilson. Introduction: The Twenty Years Crisis and the Category of Idealism in International Relations. David Long Peter Wilson. (ed.) Thinkers of the Twenty Years Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. Oxford: Oxford University Press: 1995. p.1 6 Carrs term utopians is generally taken to refer to the idealists, though he does not clearly define who he considers to be utopians. 7 Wilson, Introduction, p. 12. Wilson adapted the equation from Hedley Bull, The Twenty Crisis Thirty Years On, International Journal, Issue 24, Vol. 4 (1969), p. 627-8. E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis: 1919-1939. New York: Harper: (1946) 1964. pp. 11-21. 8 Brian C. Schmidt. Lessons from the Past: reassessing the Interwar Disciplinary History of International Relations. International Studies Quarterly (1998) 42. p 452 9 Andreas Osiander, Rereading Early Twentieth Century IR theory: Idealism Revisited, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 3 (Sep.,1998). p. 417 10 Paul Rich, Alfred Zimmerns Catious Idealism: the League of Nations, International Education, and the Commonwealth. Thinkers of the Twenty Years Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. p.88; Peter Wilson, Carr and his Early Crtics: responses to the Twenty Years Crisis. Michael Cox (ed). E. H. Carr: A critical appraisal. New York: Palgrave: 2000. p. 167. 11 J. D. Miller. Norman Angell and Rationality in International Relations. Thinkers of the Twenty Years Crisis: Inter-war idealism reassessed. pp. 116, 119. 12 Alfred Zimmern, Learning and Leadership: a study of the needs and possibilities of international intellectual co-operation. London: Oxford University Press: 1928. p. 10; p. 82. 13 Carr, Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace pp. 857-858. 14 Norman Angell, Peace and the Public Mind. June 12, 1935. http://www.nobel.se/cgi-bin/print. March 24, 2004. 15 E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis. pp. 132-133; pp. 67-75 16 Norman Angell Peace and the Public Mind. para. 19 17 quoted in E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis. p 24. 18 Ibid. p. 26; p. 41 19 The line of reasoning here is tied to the idea of an international game theory, which due to practical constraints cannot be covered here. The argument is made in line with Robert Jervis theory on international behaviour in his Cooperation Under Security Dilemma World Politics. Vol. 30, No. 2 (Jan, 1978), pp.167-214. 20 Stephen van Evera, Why co-operation failed in 1914. World Politics, Vol. 38. No. 1 (Oct, 1985). p. 81 21 Christian Reus-Smit, The Strange Death of Liberal International Theory. European Journal of International Law. Vol. 12. No. 3. pp. 578-9. 22 J. D. Miller. Norman Angell and the Futility of War: Peace and the public mind. London: Macmillian: 1986. pp/ 124-125. 23 Norman Angell. Peace and the Public mind. para. 17 24 Norman Angell. Europes Optical Illusion. London: Simpkin, Marshall, Hamilton, Kent , 1909(?)24-40; The Great Illusion:A study of the relation of military power to national advantage. London: William Heinemann 1913. pp. 26-40. 25 Andreas Osiander, Rereading Early Twentieth Century IR theory p. 417 26 Alfred Zimmern, Learning and Leadership. p. 11. 27 Alfred Zimmern, The Problem with Collective Security (ed) Q. Wright. Neutrality and Collective Security. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 1936. p. 8. 28 Ibid. 29 E. H. Carr, Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace. p. 854. 30 E. H. Carr. The Twenty Years Crisis. pp. 208-223 31 Alfred Zimmern Learning and Leadership. p. 22 32 Norman Angell, The Great Illusion. 1913. pp. 200-221. 33 Alfred Zimmern, The Decline of International StandardsInternational Affiars (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1931-1939). Vol 17. No. 1 (Jan.-Feb. 1938), p. 21. 34 Norman Angell, The Great Illusion. P. 327 35 Norman Angell, Popular Education and International Affairs International Affairs (Royal Institute of International affairs 1931-1939) Vol. 11, No. 3 (May 1932), p. 323 36 Ibid, p 335-338, 338 37 Alfred Zimmern Learning and Leadership. p. 26-60 38 E. H. Carr. What is History? New York , St. Martins Press , 1961 p 190 39 Ibid. 40 Ibid p. 195. Propaganda is associated with the emotive and not with reason. 41 E. H. Carr. Public Opinion as a Safeguard of Peace. p. 861.

The Behavior Of Emerging Market Returns :: essays research papers

Currency devaluations, failed economic plans, regulatory changes, coups and other national financial "shocks" are notoriously difficult to predict and may have disasterous consequences for global portfolios. Indeed, these characteristics often define the difference in investment in the capital markets of developed and emerging economies. Research on emerging markets has suggested three market features: high average returns, high volatility and low correlations both across the emerging markets and with developed markets. Indeed, the lesson of volatility was learned the hard way by many investors in December 1994 when the Mexican stock market began a fall that would reduce equity value in U.S. dollars by 80% over the next three months. But, we have learned far more about these fledgling markets. First, we need to be careful in interpreting the average performance of these markets. Harvey (1995) points out that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) backfilled some of the index data resulting in a survivorship bias in the average returns. Second, the countries that are currently chosen by the IFC are the ones that have a proven track record. This selection of winners induces another type of selection bias. Third, Goetzmann and Jorion (1996) detail a re-emerging market bias. Some markets, like Argentina, have a long history beginning in the last half of the 19th century. At one point in the 1920's, Argentina's market capitalization exceeded that of the U.K. However, this market submerged. To sample returns from 1976 (as the IFC does), only measures the "re-emergence" period. A longer horizon mean, in this case, would be lower than the one calculated from 1976. This insight is consistent with the out-of -sample portfolio simulations carried out by Harvey (1993) indicating that the performance of the dynamic strategy was affect by the initial five years. Fourth, exposure as measured by the IFC is not necessarily attainable for world investor's [see Bekart and Urias (1996)]. Second, we have learned that the emerging market returns are more predictable than developed market returns. Harvey (1995) details much higher explanatory power for emerging equity markets than developed market returns. The sources of this predictability could be time-varying risk exposures and/or time-varying risk premiums, such as in Ferson and Harvey's (1991, 1993) study of U.S. and international markets. The predictability could also be induced by fundamental inefficiencies. In many countries, the predictability is of a remarkably simple form: autocorrelation. For example, Harvey (1995) details 0.25 autocorrelation coefficient for Mexico in a sample that ends in June 1992.

RIWT TASK1 Renaissance and Middle Ages

Incessant and Middle Ages Western Governors University Abstract This paper will explore two periods of art: The Renaissance and The Middle Ages. For this paper I will describe the characteristics and styles of both periods, and the social conditions that influenced each period. I will also compare and contrast the characteristics and styles of both periods. I will then compare and contrast specific artworks from each period of time. Due to the fact The Middle Ages came first in history, they will also come first in this paper.To start, I will talk about the characteristics and styles of The Middle Ages and the social conditions that influenced them. The Middle Ages were a period of history that occurred from 400 to 1400 A. D. Middle Age art had many characteristics in common, some of these are; religious subject matter, stiff figures that showed little movement, and the faces were serious and had little to no emotion in them. Also important figures of a piece were normally bigger to show importance, they were two dimensional, and the backgrounds were usually one color.As with many early art periods, religion was the main subject matter in art (De Razor, 2013). As this tenement shows, religion was the main influencing social condition of the time. This is extremely present when we look at most of the artists of the time were monks. These artists would rarely sign their name to the artworks because the art was made to honor god or kings. The artist who made the art was of little importance (Limited, 2001). This is one aspect of the Middle Ages that was extremely different than the Renaissance. The next period, the Renaissance, is probably the most famous period of art in history.The Renaissance occurred Just after the Middle Ages, from 1400 to 1600 A. D. Some of the characteristics of Renaissance art are; religious and non-religious themes, movement in the figures and emotion in the faces, and reflected a great interest in nature (De Razor, 2013). The backgrounds also showed perspective and were three-dimensional and life-like. The main social condition that influenced art of the time was money, or the ability for the wealthy to keep their wealth. For the first time, the wealthy were able to flaunt their art because they weren't afraid to have it stolen from them.Artists could now make a profitable living from their art. This allowed artists to branch out from the traditional religious painting. This is what led to the new characteristics that came out in the Renaissance period. Next, I will compare and contrast the two periods. The Renaissance was extremely different from the Middle Ages in the characteristics the periods showed. The Renaissance was all about the artist and what he wanted, whereas the Middle Ages were more about the people it was being made for and the subject matter being depicted.The characteristics of the Middle Ages were as followed; religious subject matter, important figures are shown as larger than the people around them, figures re stiff with emotionless faces, the paintings were flat and two-dimensional, and the backgrounds were usually one solid color. These are almost completely different than characteristics of Renaissance are and here are some examples; scenes were religious and non-religious, figures were lifelike and three-dimensional, bodies looked active and were shown moving, faces showed emotion, paintings were balanced and symmetrical, and the backgrounds showed perspective.It almost looks like artists of the Renaissance were revolting against art of the Middle Ages. Works from these periods that give a good example of the contrasting styles are The Madonna and Child in Majesty Surrounded by Angels, done in the middle ages, and The Primeval, done during the Renaissance. The Madonna and Child in Majesty Surrounded by Angels was completed by artist name Cambium between 1280 to 1302 A. D. (Depending & HTHÂ ©abut, 2007). In the painting, Marry and baby Jesus are surrounded by a group of angels.The middle figure of Marry is much larger than the angels. The faces of the figures are stoic and the figures show no sense of movement. The background is also done completely in the color gold. These are characteristics all enduring of the Middle Ages. The Primeval was made in 1482 by a famous Renaissance artist by the name of Botanical (Capacities, 1998). The painting is of pagan gods in a walled garden. Compared to Madonna and Child in Majesty Surrounded by Angels, the figures are all the same size and show a sense of movement and emotion.Also the characters are three-dimensional and life-like. The background is also very different, as it shows a nature scene of what appears to be a walled garden. From the analysis of these two works of art, it is easy to see the differing styles of the periods. In conclusion, the Renaissance and Middle Ages are two early art periods. The Renaissance style was almost a reaction against the style of the Middle Ages and because of this a re very different.

Essay on The Use of Tobacco by Teens - 2223 Words

Teenage smoking can be a result of the influence of other teens, or maybe the amount of peer pressure. This can cause a teen to want to smoke or even think about smoking (Alcid, Arthur, page 1). Statistics show that 794 student and 22.4 percent of teens claimed to be tobacco users. (Alcid, Arthur, page 1). Teens tend to be more abrasive when smoking, and seem to act different while smoking and once they have gotten into the habit of smoking make it a constant thing. In 2003, 21.9 percent of high school students currently smoke cigarettes (Alcid, Arthur, page 1). Nowadays students are not only being pressured to smoke by their peers and by their surrounding, but they are also watching their parents smoke. Many teens have been influenced by†¦show more content†¦They pressured her unto believing that smoking was cool and that she would fit in by smoking and that smoking with her friends would bring them closer and would enhance their friendship. (Mentor, October, 2011). Ms. Jeanette says that when she started smoking she would often cravings during the day and while in school and would always think about the different ways to where she could go smoke a cigarette. She says that smoking would ease her mind and made her feel calm and at ease like it was her escape to other things. (Mentor, October, 2011). As a teen her parents did smoke and she says that also influenced her as a teen and made her want to smoke as well. (Mentor, October, 2011). She says that as she began to become her own person as she grew older she then realized that smo king was not cool, and she should not have done it. She still does not realize how smoking makes her fit in and made her and her friends closer. (Mentor, October, 2011). Now that Ms. Jeanette is older and wiser she states that smoking is not good for anyone and especially not as a teen because more than likely if one smokes as a teen you will continue to smoke as an adult, and it can cause one long term problems as an adult and you could develop different kinds of cancers and different issues concerning one’s body and a person defiantly does not want that on your back. (Mentor, October, 2011). She also stated that now that she has a daughter, she does not want her to be influenced by whatShow MoreRelatedPreventing Teens And Preteens From Tobacco Use927 Words   |  4 PagesPreventing Teens and Preteens from Tobacco Use Tobacco is a plant that grows in North and South America. It is in the same family as the poisonous night shade, a very deadly plant. It began growing in America around 6000 B.C and started to be chewed and smoked about 2000 years ago as cultural or religious ceremony and events. 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